Trend 3
Clearance rates generally stay high but FDI regimes toughen stance
Most deals still receive clearance without remedies across merger control and FDI regimes
DealSCREEN data shows that merger control outcomes remain highly stable: between 2020 and 2025, over 97% of reviewed transactions received clearance without remedies, with the distribution of outcomes in 2024 and 2025 remaining effectively unchanged. Clearance rates were even higher in Asia, Latin America and North America (99%), with several jurisdictions granting clearance without remedies in all reviewed cases (e.g. Estonia, Japan, Mexico). Although clearances without remedies are less prevalent in FDI screening, they still represented the majority of decisions (84% in 2023 and 87% in 2024).
Merger control and FDI prohibitions remain rare, accounting for less than 0.5% of cases globally. However, approval statistics do not capture the full commercial impact of regulatory scrutiny on deal certainty and execution: in a small but material subset of cases, parties abandon transactions or adjust deal structures in anticipation of likely adverse outcomes, extended review timelines or onerous conditions.
Global merger control, FDI and FSR decisions: outcomes
“Clearance rates remain high, even as regulatory risk increasingly shapes deal timing, structure and strategy.”
FDI intervention has intensified in specific jurisdictions
While merger control intervention (i.e. deals cleared with remedies or prohibited) has not materially changed, the level of FDI intervention has increased significantly in a number of jurisdictions. France provides the clearest example. On the basis of most recently available data, 55% of FDI decisions related to deals cleared with remedies or prohibitions, compared with 6% of merger control cases. A similar, though less pronounced pattern, is evident in Australia, the US, Germany and the Netherlands, where merger control intervention remains minimal but FDI review results in materially higher levels of clearance decisions with remedies or prohibitions.
FDI v merger control: comparison of proportion of deals cleared with remedies or prohibited
“The trend towards greater FDI intervention will only increase, as the geopolitical climate continues to remain unstable”
Explore the trends shaping deal-making
Explore the trends shaping deal-making
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